Layoffs accelerate as companies increasingly rely on AI to replace low/mid-level roles
Resolves when: Multiple Fortune 500 tech companies announce layoffs explicitly citing AI automation
Outcome: Major tech companies (Meta, Microsoft, Google, etc.) continued significant layoffs in 2025, explicitly citing AI automation as a factor.
Countries race to set global AI regulations, with some adopting loose rules to gain competitive advantage while others (notably EU) fall behind
Resolves when: At least 3 major nations adopt meaningfully different AI regulatory stances within the year
Outcome: US took a deregulatory stance on AI under Trump administration; EU AI Act came into force but bloc remained absent from frontier model leadership.
AGI is technically achieved in 2025, likely in Q1 or Q2, based on trajectory from o3 ARC-AGI results
Resolves when: A major AI lab publicly claims AGI has been achieved and the claim is credibly supported by benchmark evidence
Nvidia announces a platform for decentralized computing that lets customers monetize idle GPU compute
Resolves when: Nvidia launches a product allowing consumer GPU owners to monetize idle compute capacity
AI crypto projects peak in Q1 2025 then crash as valuations hit unsustainable levels and market becomes saturated
Resolves when: Top-10 AI crypto tokens peak in Q1 and are down >40% from peak by June 30
Outcome: AI-themed crypto tokens (VIRTUAL, TAO, FET, etc.) peaked in early 2025 and saw significant drawdowns of 60–80% from highs by mid-year.
Meme coins stage a comeback as AI crypto narrative fades, driven by retail investors seeking asymmetric returns
Resolves when: Meme coins by market cap in CoinGecko top 50 exceed 2024 levels; at least one new meme coin exceeds $5B market cap
Outcome: Meme coin activity remained elevated in 2025 with Solana-based meme coins dominating retail narratives, though the TRUMP and MELANIA coins in January caused controversy.
Solana ETF gets approved and Solana becomes a serious contender for flipping Ethereum in market cap
Resolves when: SEC approves a spot Solana ETF OR Solana market cap reaches 70%+ of Ethereum's
At least one Tier 1 nation announces Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset, triggering a supply crunch
Resolves when: G20 nation officially adds Bitcoin to sovereign reserves via new purchases and BTC price hits new ATH within 60 days
Outcome: US signed executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in early 2025, though it was seeded with seized BTC rather than new purchases — a meaningful step but not the full supply-crunch catalyst predicted.
A mobile Web3 game hits $100M ARR, marking blockchain gaming's first major commercial success
Resolves when: A blockchain-native mobile game publicly reports or credibly exceeds $100M ARR
Unity or Unreal releases a generative AI co-pilot feature for real-time developer assistance inside the engine
Resolves when: Unity or Unreal ships a generally available AI co-pilot integrated natively into the engine editor
Gaming DAOs acting as publishers fail to gain meaningful traction due to experience gaps and chasing narratives over fundamentals
Resolves when: No gaming DAO reaches 100K paying players or $10M in revenue from games it has published
Outcome: No gaming DAO publisher emerged as a credible market force in 2025; most continued to struggle with execution and remained niche.
Pending Markets
40% conf.
Universal Basic Income (UBI) moves from theory to active pilot programs in Tier 1 economies
Resolves when: US, EU member state, UK, or Japan launches a government-funded UBI pilot covering 10,000+ participants
AI goes local: desktop agents run natively on the OS, replacing browser-based chat as the dominant AI workflow paradigm
Resolves when: A desktop-native AI agent platform (non-browser) reaches 1M+ active users OR Apple/Microsoft ships OS-native agent infrastructure as a default component
Agentic teams go mainstream: by Q4 2026, at least 30% of software companies with 50+ employees have multi-agent AI teams deployed in production workflows
Resolves when: Credible industry survey (n>500 companies) confirms 30%+ of software cos with 50+ employees run production multi-agent workflows
Research surfaces on cognitive costs of heavy AI usage — attention fragmentation, reduced deep thinking, skill offloading — becoming mainstream discourse
Resolves when: At least one peer-reviewed study on AI-induced cognitive degradation published in a major journal AND covered by mainstream outlets
A 'Proof of Human' counter-culture emerges — verified human-made content commands a premium, authentication protocols for original work launch
Resolves when: At least one major platform or marketplace launches a 'human-made' verification or certification system with commercial uptake
Pending Markets
90% conf.
Prediction markets fully integrate into daily life — at least one top-20 news outlet natively embeds prediction market data in editorial content by December 2026
Resolves when: A top-20 news outlet (by global traffic) integrates live Polymarket or Kalshi odds directly into their editorial articles or news feed
X402 (HTTP-native payments) goes from experiment to meaningful transaction volume, setting the stage for the agentic economy
Resolves when: X402 protocol processes $10M+ in cumulative transactions OR is natively supported by a major API platform with 1M+ developers
Total stablecoin transaction volume exceeds $20 trillion in 2026, with traditional financial institutions processing a meaningful share
Resolves when: On-chain stablecoin volume (all chains, annualized) reaches $20T+ AND at least one major bank (top 50 by assets) announces live stablecoin settlement rails
Arc Raiders validates that deliberate game theory design produces measurably better engagement and retention than traditional extraction shooters
Resolves when: Arc Raiders publicly reports retention metrics competitive with top extraction shooters AND at least two major studios announce game-theory-informed design changes citing Arc Raiders
Pending Markets
80% conf.
At least one AI-discovered drug enters Phase 3 clinical trials, and the longevity economy exceeds $50B in global market size
Resolves when: A drug candidate identified primarily through AI reaches Phase 3 trials AND longevity/healthspan market credibly reported at $50B+ by a research firm
No predictions match this filter.
METHODOLOGY
Predictions are extracted verbatim from published articles. Scoring is binary where possible (correct / incorrect),
or marked partial when the core thesis was right but details differed. Confidence % reflects my stated or implied
conviction at time of writing. Accuracy is calculated as (correct + 0.5 × partial) ÷ resolved.
Brier Score measures calibration — not just whether predictions were right, but whether the confidence levels were honest.
Formula: mean of (confidence − outcome)² across resolved predictions, where correct=1, partial=0.5, incorrect=0.
Lower is better: 0.00 is perfect, 0.25 is a random coin flip, 1.00 is perfectly wrong.
The skill score shows percentage improvement over a random baseline (0.25).
Each prediction includes explicit resolution criteria — the measurable conditions that determine correct/incorrect — set at prediction time and never edited retroactively. Every wrong call stays on the record.